论文标题
IIVA:基于模拟的相互依存基础设施脆弱性评估的通用框架
IIVA: A Simulation Based Generalized Framework for Interdependent Infrastructure Vulnerability Assessment
论文作者
论文摘要
关键基础设施系统的准确脆弱性评估是基础设施弹性的基础主教。与传统方法不同,本文提出了一个新颖的基础设施脆弱性评估框架,该框架说明了:各种类型的基础设施相互依存关系,包括物理,逻辑和地理学,从整体角度来看;缺乏/不完整的有关相互依存基础设施的供需流量特征的信息;并且,关于基础架构网络拓扑和/或相互依赖性的数据不足/数据不足。具体而言,本文对基于仿真的混合方法的多基础结构漏洞与时间依赖性的贝叶斯网络分析相结合,同时考虑在不完整的信息下,在顺式网络内部和整个顺式网络中考虑级联故障。现有的有关电力,水和供应链网络的合成数据用于实施/验证框架。使用Voronoi多边形在地理图上描绘了基础设施漏洞。我们的结果表明,基础设施脆弱性与基础设施系统中内置的冗余数量成反比,这表明在现有基础设施系统中分配资源增加冗余对于降低失败的风险至关重要。据观察,组件的初始故障率更高,基础设施的脆弱性更高,突出了现代化和升级基础设施系统的重要性,旨在降低初始失败概率。我们的结果还强调了协作工作的重要性并在多个基础架构系统之间共享必要的信息,旨在最大程度地降低相互依存的基础架构系统的总体失败风险。
Accurate vulnerability assessment of critical infrastructure systems is cardinal to enhance infrastructure resilience. Unlike traditional approaches, this paper proposes a novel infrastructure vulnerability assessment framework that accounts for: various types of infrastructure interdependencies including physical, logical and geographical from a holistic perspective; lack of/incomplete information on supply-demand flow characteristics of interdependent infrastructure; and, unavailability/inadequate data on infrastructure network topology and/or interdependencies. Specifically, this paper models multi-infrastructure vulnerabilities leveraging simulation-based hybrid approach coupled with time-dependent Bayesian network analysis while considering cascading failures within and across CIS networks, under incomplete information. Existing synthetic data on electricity, water and supply chain networks are used to implement/validate the framework. Infrastructure vulnerabilities are depicted on a geo-map using Voronoi polygons. Our results indicate that infrastructure vulnerability is inversely proportional to the number of redundancies inbuilt in the infrastructure system, indicating that allocating resources to add redundancies in an existing infrastructure system is essential to reduce its risk of failure. It is observed that higher the initial failure rate of the components, higher is the vulnerability of the infrastructure, highlighting the importance of modernizing and upgrading the infrastructure system aiming to reduce the initial failure probabilities. Our results also underline the importance of collaborative working and sharing the necessary information among multiple infrastructure systems, aiming towards minimizing the overall failure risk of interdependent infrastructure systems.