论文标题

俄罗斯石油的数量限制和价格折扣

Quantity restrictions and price discounts on Russian oil

论文作者

Wachtmeister, Henrik, Gars, Johan, Spiro, Daniel

论文摘要

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后,西方国家正在寻找限制俄罗斯石油收入的方法。本文从理论和定量上考虑了两个这样的选择:1)出口定量限制和2)俄罗斯石油的强制折扣。我们建立了全球石油市场的可量化模型,并分析了这些政策如何影响:哪些俄罗斯石油田降落在生产中;全球石油供应;和全球石油价格。通过这些静态,我们得出了政策对俄罗斯石油利润和石油进口商的经济盈余的影响。对俄罗斯石油利润的影响是巨大的。在短期内(在第一年内),数量限制为20%,俄罗斯每天的损失为6200万美元,相当于GDP的1.2%和32%的军事支出。从长远来看(超过一年),新投资变得无利可图。损失每天增加到1亿美元,占GDP的2%和军事支出的56%。 20%的价格折扣对俄罗斯有害,每天损失1.52亿美元,相当于GDP的3.1%,而长期以来的军事支出的85%和军事支出的85%。与数量限制相比,价格折扣通常会给俄罗斯带来更多负担,而对进口商的负担更少。实际上,价格折扣意味着石油进口商的净收益,因为它实际上将俄罗斯的石油租金重新分配给了进口商。如果预计限制会持续很长时间,则对石油进口商的负担会减少。总体而言,各个层面上的两项政策都意味着俄罗斯的相对损失要比石油进口商(其GDP的股票)更大。因此,俄罗斯石油的价格折扣的案例很强。但是,俄罗斯可能会选择不以折扣价出口,在这种情况下,价格裁定制裁将成为事实上的供应限制。

Following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have looked for ways to limit Russia's oil income. This paper considers, theoretically and quantitatively, two such options: 1) an export-quantity restriction and 2) a forced discount on Russian oil. We build a quantifiable model of the global oil market and analyze how each of these policies affect: which Russian oil fields fall out of production; the global oil supply; and the global oil price. By these statics we derive the effects of the policies on Russian oil profits and oil-importers' economic surplus. The effects on Russian oil profits are substantial. In the short run (within the first year), a quantity restriction of 20% yields Russian losses of 62 million USD per day, equivalent to 1.2% of GDP and 32% of military spending. In the long run (beyond a year) new investments become unprofitable. Losses rise to 100 million USD per day, 2% of GDP and 56% of military spending. A price discount of 20% is even more harmful to Russia, yielding losses of 152 million USD per day, equivalent to 3.1% of GDP and 85% of military spending in the short run and long run. A price discount puts generally more burden on Russia and less on importers compared to a quantity restriction. In fact, a price discount implies net gains for oil importers as it essentially redistributes oil rents from Russia to importers. If the restrictions are expected to last for long, the burden on oil importers decreases. Overall, both policies at all levels imply larger relative losses for Russia than for oil importers (in shares of their GDP). The case for a price discount on Russian oil is thus strong. However, Russia may choose not to export at the discounted price, in which case the price-discount sanction becomes a de facto supply restriction.

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