论文标题
网络动力学的自回旋GNN-ODE GRU模型
Autoregressive GNN-ODE GRU Model for Network Dynamics
论文作者
论文摘要
揭示网络上的连续动态对于理解,预测甚至控制复杂的系统至关重要,但是由于复杂且未知的管理方程,复杂系统的高维度以及不令人满意的观察结果,很难学习和建模连续的网络动态。此外,在实际情况下,观察到的时间序列数据通常是不均匀且稀疏的,这也会引起严重的挑战。在本文中,我们提出了一种自回归的GNN-ODE GRU模型(AGOG),以学习和捕获连续的网络动态,并以数据驱动的方式在任意时间内实现节点状态的预测。 GNN模块用于建模复杂和非线性网络动力学。节点状态的隐藏状态由ODE系统指定,并利用增强ODE系统将GNN映射到连续的时域中。隐藏状态通过Grucell通过观测来更新。作为先验知识,将同一时间戳上的真实观察与下一个预测的隐藏状态相结合。我们使用自回归模型根据观察历史进行一步进行预测。通过解决ODE的初始值问题来实现该预测。为了验证模型的性能,我们可视化学习的动力学并在三个任务中测试它们:插值重建,外推预测和常规序列预测。结果表明,我们的模型可以准确捕获复杂系统的连续动态过程,并以最小的误差对节点状态进行精确预测。我们的模型可以始终超过其他基线或实现可比的性能。
Revealing the continuous dynamics on the networks is essential for understanding, predicting, and even controlling complex systems, but it is hard to learn and model the continuous network dynamics because of complex and unknown governing equations, high dimensions of complex systems, and unsatisfactory observations. Moreover, in real cases, observed time-series data are usually non-uniform and sparse, which also causes serious challenges. In this paper, we propose an Autoregressive GNN-ODE GRU Model (AGOG) to learn and capture the continuous network dynamics and realize predictions of node states at an arbitrary time in a data-driven manner. The GNN module is used to model complicated and nonlinear network dynamics. The hidden state of node states is specified by the ODE system, and the augmented ODE system is utilized to map the GNN into the continuous time domain. The hidden state is updated through GRUCell by observations. As prior knowledge, the true observations at the same timestamp are combined with the hidden states for the next prediction. We use the autoregressive model to make a one-step ahead prediction based on observation history. The prediction is achieved by solving an initial-value problem for ODE. To verify the performance of our model, we visualize the learned dynamics and test them in three tasks: interpolation reconstruction, extrapolation prediction, and regular sequences prediction. The results demonstrate that our model can capture the continuous dynamic process of complex systems accurately and make precise predictions of node states with minimal error. Our model can consistently outperform other baselines or achieve comparable performance.