论文标题
关于sir型流行病学模型和人口异质性效应
On SIR-type epidemiological models and population heterogeneity effects
论文作者
论文摘要
在本文中，我们详细介绍了均质和异质的SIR型流行病学模型。我们发现在Schwarzschild时空中，在均质的Sir型模型中透射性疾病的流行轨迹与径向无效的大地测量之间的意外对应关系。我们还通过考虑初始易感性分布的单参数和两参数伽马分布的功能来讨论种群异质性效应的建模，并得出相关的群豁免阈值。我们进一步描述了如何通过模型拟合来考虑缓解措施。
In this paper we elaborate on homogeneous and heterogeneous SIR-type epidemiological models. We find an unexpected correspondence between the epidemic trajectory of a transmissible disease in a homogeneous SIR-type model and radial null geodesics in the Schwarzschild spacetime. We also discuss modeling of population heterogeneity effects by considering both a one- and two-parameter gamma-distributed function for the initial susceptibility distribution, and deriving the associated herd immunity threshold. We furthermore describe how mitigation measures can be taken into account by model fitting.
