论文标题

sir-huxt-粒子滤清器数据同化方案,用于吸收CME时间延长轮廓

SIR-HUXt -- a particle filter data assimilation scheme for assimilating CME time-elongation profiles

论文作者

Barnard, Luke, Owens, Mathew, Scott, Chris, Lang, Matthew, Lockwood, Mike

论文摘要

储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。

We present the development of SIR-HUXt, the integration of a sequential importance resampling (SIR) data assimilation scheme with the HUXt solar wind model. SIR-HUXt is designed to assimilate the time-elongation profiles of CME fronts in the low heliosphere, such as those typically extracted from heliospheric imager data returned by the STEREO, Parker Solar Probe, and Solar Orbiter missions. We use Observing System Simulation Experiments to explore the performance of SIR-HUXt for a simple synthetic CME scenario of a fully Earth directed CME flowing through a uniform ambient solar wind, where the CME is initialised with the average observed CME speed and width. These experiments are performed for a range of observer locations, from 20 deg to 90 deg behind Earth, spanning the L5 point where ESA's future Vigil space weather monitor will return heliospheric imager data for operational space weather forecasting. We show that SIR-HUXt performs well at constraining the CME speed, and has some success at constraining the CME longitude. The CME width is largely unconstrained by the SIR-HUXt assimilations, and more experiments are required to determine if this is due to this specific CME scenario, or is a general feature of assimilating time-elongation profiles. Rank-histograms suggest that the SIR-HUXt ensembles are well calibrated, with no clear indications of bias or under/over dispersion. Improved constraints on the initial CME speed lead directly to improvements in the CME transit time to Earth and arrival speed. For an observer in the L5 region, SIR-HUXt returned a 69% reduction in the CME transit time uncertainty, and a 63% reduction in the arrival speed uncertainty. This suggests SIR-HUXt has potential to improve the real-world representivity of HUXt simulations, and therefore has potential to reduce the uncertainty of CME arrival time hindcasts and forecasts.

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