论文标题
数据驱动的参数保险框架使用贝叶斯神经网络
Data-driven Parametric Insurance Framework Using Bayesian Neural Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
由于气候变化对社会构成了新的,更不可预测的挑战,保险是防止极端事件造成的损失的重要途径。传统的保险风险模型采用统计分析,随着气候变化使天气更加不稳定和极端,这些分析变得越来越有缺陷。数据驱动的参数保险可以提供必要的保护来补充传统保险。我们使用一种被称为“深层sigma点”过程(这是贝叶斯神经网络方法之一)的技术,用于使用我们作为案例研究中的住宅互联网连接辍学的参数保险的数据分析部分。我们表明,与传统的统计模型相比,我们的模型的准确性显着提高。我们进一步证明,美国每个州都有一个独特的天气因素,主要影响辍学率,并且通过结合多个天气因素,我们可以为参数保险构建高度准确的风险模型。我们希望我们的方法可以应用于建立参数保险选择的多种风险,尤其是当气候变化使风险建模更具挑战性时。
As climate change poses new and more unpredictable challenges to society, insurance is an essential avenue to protect against loss caused by extreme events. Traditional insurance risk models employ statistical analyses that are inaccurate and are becoming increasingly flawed as climate change renders weather more erratic and extreme. Data-driven parametric insurance could provide necessary protection to supplement traditional insurance. We use a technique referred to as the deep sigma point process, which is one of the Bayesian neural network approaches, for the data analysis portion of parametric insurance using residential internet connectivity dropout in US as a case study. We show that our model has significantly improved accuracy compared to traditional statistical models. We further demonstrate that each state in US has a unique weather factor that primarily influences dropout rates and that by combining multiple weather factors we can build highly accurate risk models for parametric insurance. We expect that our method can be applied to many types of risk to build parametric insurance options, particularly as climate change makes risk modeling more challenging.