论文标题
气候财务
Climate-Contingent Finance
论文作者
论文摘要
气候适应可能会带来重大收益。但是，未来气候场景的不确定性降低了主动适应的可行性。气候适应项目可以由在每个适应项目旨在解决的气候场景中支付的福利承保，因为其他实体希望对冲这些情况的财务风险。由于投资回报率是气候变化水平的函数，因此适应实体以偿还适应性作为气候的函数是最佳的。它对于在更极端的气候下具有更高财务缺点的实体来说也是投资对手的最佳选择，因为当他们最需要时，它们可以获得高于市场收益率。 通过这种方式，各方主动进行改编将降低他们过度腾出的风险，而投资者将降低他们备受推验的风险。这比典型的保险优越，因为通过投资气候危机机制，投资者不仅在财务上是对冲，而且还可以完全防止身体损害，从而创造经济价值。根据当事方的降低风险能力和财务状况，这可以通过时间和地点进行协调，同时还提供了多样化的投资回报。 Climate-contingent finance can be generalized to any situation where entities share exposure to a risk where they lack direct control over whether it occurs (e.g., climate change, or a natural pandemic), and one type of entity can take proactive actions to benefit from addressing the effects of the risk if it occurs (e.g., through innovating on crops that would do well under extreme climate change or vaccination technology that could address particular viruses) with funding from another type of寻求有针对性的返回以改善不利方面的实体。
Climate adaptation could yield significant benefits. However, the uncertainty of which future climate scenarios will occur decreases the feasibility of proactively adapting. Climate adaptation projects could be underwritten by benefits paid for in the climate scenarios that each adaptation project is designed to address because other entities would like to hedge the financial risk of those scenarios. Because the return on investment is a function of the level of climate change, it is optimal for the adapting entity to finance adaptation with repayment as a function of the climate. It is also optimal for entities with more financial downside under a more extreme climate to serve as an investing counterparty because they can obtain higher than market rates of return when they need it most. In this way, parties proactively adapting would reduce the risk they over-prepare, while their investors would reduce the risk they under-prepare. This is superior to typical insurance because, by investing in climate-contingent mechanisms, investors are not merely financially hedging but also outright preventing physical damage, and therefore creating economic value. This coordinates capital through time and place according to parties' risk reduction capabilities and financial profiles, while also providing a diversifying investment return. Climate-contingent finance can be generalized to any situation where entities share exposure to a risk where they lack direct control over whether it occurs (e.g., climate change, or a natural pandemic), and one type of entity can take proactive actions to benefit from addressing the effects of the risk if it occurs (e.g., through innovating on crops that would do well under extreme climate change or vaccination technology that could address particular viruses) with funding from another type of entity that seeks a targeted return to ameliorate the downside.
