论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Detailed stellar activity analysis and modelling of GJ 832: Reassessment of the putative habitable zone planet GJ 832c
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Context. Gliese 832 (GJ 832) is an M2V star hosting a massive planet on a decade-long orbit, GJ 832b, discovered by radial velocity (RV). Later, a super Earth or mini-Neptune orbiting within the stellar habitable zone was reported (GJ 832c). The recently determined stellar rotation period (45.7 $\pm$ 9.3 days) is close to the orbital period of putative planet c (35.68 $\pm$ 0.03 days). Aims. We aim to confirm or dismiss the planetary nature of the RV signature attributed to GJ 832c, by adding 119 new RV data points, new photometric data, and an analysis of the spectroscopic stellar activity indicators. Additionally, we update the orbital parameters of the planetary system and search for additional signals. Methods. We performed a frequency content analysis of the RVs to search for periodic and stable signals. Radial velocity time series were modelled with Keplerians and Gaussian process (GP) regressions alongside activity indicators to subsequently compare them within a Bayesian framework. Results. We updated the stellar rotational period of GJ 832 from activity indicators, obtaining $37.5^{+1.4}_{-1.5}$ days, improving the precision by a factor of 6. The new photometric data are in agreement with this value. We detected an RV signal near 18 days (FAP < 4.6%), which is half of the stellar rotation period. Two Keplerians alone fail at modelling GJ 832b and a second planet with a 35-day orbital period. Moreover, the Bayesian evidence from the GP analysis of the RV data with simultaneous activity indices prefers a model without a second Keplerian, therefore negating the existence of planet c.