论文标题
外债对温室气体排放的影响
The Effect of External Debt on Greenhouse Gas Emissions
论文作者
论文摘要
我们估计了1990 - 2015年期间78个新兴市场和发展中经济体小组中外债对温室气体排放的因果影响。与以前的文献不同，我们使用外部工具来解决外债与温室气体排放之间关系的潜在内生性。具体来说，我们将国际流动性冲击用作外债的工具变量。我们发现，处理潜在的内生性问题会带来外债对温室气体排放的积极和统计学上的显着影响：1个百分点（pp。）外债原因增加，平均而言，温室气体排放量增加了0.5％。一种可能的行动机制可能是，随着外债的增加，政府无法执行环境法规，因为其主要优先事项是增加税基以支付增加债务服务，或者是因为拥有该债务并阻止此类法规的私营部门捕获了债务。
We estimate the causal effect of external debt on greenhouse gas emissions in a panel of 78 emerging market and developing economies over the 1990-2015 period. Unlike previous literature, we use external instruments to address the potential endogeneity in the relationship between external debt and greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, we use international liquidity shocks as instrumental variables for external debt. We find that dealing with the potential endogeneity problem brings about a positive and statistically significant effect of external debt on greenhouse gas emissions: a 1 percentage point (pp.) rise in external debt causes, on average, a 0.5% increase in greenhouse gas emissions. One possible mechanism of action could be that, as external debt increases, governments are less able to enforce environmental regulations because their main priority is to increase the tax base to pay increasing debt services or because they are captured by the private sector who owns that debt and prevented from tightening such regulations.
