论文标题
来自动态术语结构模型的顺序学习和经济利益
Sequential Learning and Economic Benefits from Dynamic Term Structure Models
论文作者
论文摘要
我们从实时贝叶斯学习者的角度探讨了对风险补偿动态限制的统计和经济重要性,该贝叶斯学习者使用动态术语结构模型(DTSM)预测债券超额回报。关于此类模型提供的潜在统计可预测性是否可以在样本外产生具有经济意义的投资组合福利的问题,同时对其风险高潮参数施加限制。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一个方法学框架,该方法框架成功地处理了实时限制空间的顺序模型搜索和参数估计,从而使投资者能够在新信息到达时修改他们的信念,从而告知其资产分配并最大程度地提高他们的预期效用。经验结果加强了稀疏性在风险规格市场价格中的论点,因为我们发现仅对于那些允许允许级别风险的模型的样本外可预测性证据,而且此外,这些风险主要参数中只有一个或两个与零不同。最重要的是,此类统计证据在预测范围内,不同的时间段和投资组合规范之间变成了经济上显着的实用性收益。除了识别成功的DTSM外,还可以自行应用随机搜索变量选择(SSV)方案的顺序版本,并提供有用的诊断监视密钥数量。还提供了与预测回归的连接。
We explore the statistical and economic importance of restrictions on the dynamics of risk compensation from the perspective of a real-time Bayesian learner who predicts bond excess returns using dynamic term structure models (DTSMs). The question on whether potential statistical predictability offered by such models can generate economically significant portfolio benefits out-of-sample, is revisited while imposing restrictions on their risk premia parameters. To address this question, we propose a methodological framework that successfully handles sequential model search and parameter estimation over the restriction space in real time, allowing investors to revise their beliefs when new information arrives, thus informing their asset allocation and maximising their expected utility. Empirical results reinforce the argument of sparsity in the market price of risk specification since we find strong evidence of out-of-sample predictability only for those models that allow for level risk to be priced and, additionally, only one or two of these risk premia parameters to be different than zero. Most importantly, such statistical evidence is turned into economically significant utility gains, across prediction horizons, different time periods and portfolio specifications. In addition to identifying successful DTSMs, the sequential version of the stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) scheme developed can be applied on its own and also offer useful diagnostics monitoring key quantities over time. Connections with predictive regressions are also provided.