论文标题
用于分销网络中负载预测的全球建模方法
A Global Modeling Approach for Load Forecasting in Distribution Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
需要有效的负载预测以确保分配网络中更好的可观察性,而通过越来越多的智能电表安装来使这种预测成为可能。由于分销网络在各种聚合级别(例如个体消费者,变压器站和馈线负载)上包括大量不同的负载,因此为每个负载分别开发单个(或所谓的本地)预测模型是不切实际的。此外,此类本地模型忽略了由于其空间接近性和分布网络的特征而可能存在的不同载荷之间的强依赖性。为了解决这些问题,本文提出了一种基于深度学习的全球建模方法,以有效地预测分销网络中的大量负载。通过这种方式,可以大大降低培训大量局部预测模型的计算负担,并且可以利用不同负载之间共享的跨系列信息。此外,还提出了一种无监督的本地化机制和最佳的集合构建策略,以将预测模型定位/个性化为不同的负载组,并进一步提高预测准确性。全面的实验是在现实世界中的智能电表数据上进行的,以证明与竞争方法相比,提出的方法的优越性。
Efficient load forecasting is needed to ensure better observability in the distribution networks, whereas such forecasting is made possible by an increasing number of smart meter installations. Because distribution networks include a large amount of different loads at various aggregation levels, such as individual consumers, transformer stations and feeders loads, it is impractical to develop individual (or so-called local) forecasting models for each load separately. Furthermore, such local models ignore the strong dependencies between different loads that might be present due to their spatial proximity and the characteristics of the distribution network. To address these issues, this paper proposes a global modeling approach based on deep learning for efficient forecasting of a large number of loads in distribution networks. In this way, the computational burden of training a large amount of local forecasting models can be largely reduced, and the cross-series information shared among different loads can be utilized. Additionally, an unsupervised localization mechanism and optimal ensemble construction strategy are also proposed to localize/personalize the forecasting model to different groups of loads and to improve the forecasting accuracy further. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on real-world smart meter data to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach compared to competing methods.