论文标题

与国家依赖公用事业的信念识别

Belief identification with state-dependent utilities

论文作者

Tsakas, Elias

论文摘要

众所周知,除非我们对公用事业是不依赖国家独立的实际限制性且概念上尴尬的假设,否则无法使用传统选择数据来识别个人信念。在本文中,我们提出了一种新颖的方法,该方法使用策略方法的变体以简单的方式解决了这个长期存在的识别问题。我们的方法依赖于合适的代理的概念。至关重要的属性是,代理在实现原始状态空间的条件下没有任何赌注。然后,我们没有试图直接识别代理人对国家空间的信念,而是鉴于每个国家实现的有条件信念。后者可以使用现有的启发工具轻松完成,而不必担心识别问题。事实证明,这足以唯一地识别代理人的信念。我们介绍了可以合理使用的不同类别的代理类别,我们表明几乎总是有可能找到易于实现的代理。这种灵活性使我们的方法不仅使我们的方法在理论上探索,而且在经验上具有吸引力。我们还展示了我们的新方法如何允许我们在状态上提供有关效用功能的新颖基础的定义。最后但并非最不重要的一点是,它还使我们能够清晰地识别积极的信念,摆脱了识别问题引起的混淆扭曲。

It is well known that individual beliefs cannot be identified using traditional choice data, unless we impose the practically restrictive and conceptually awkward assumption that utilities are state-independent. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology that solves this long-standing identification problem in a simple way, using a variant of the strategy method. Our method relies on the concept of a suitable proxy. The crucial property is that the agent does not have any stakes in the proxy conditional on the realization of the original state space. Then, instead of trying to identify directly the agent's beliefs about the state space, we elicit her conditional beliefs about the proxy given each state realization. The latter can be easily done with existing elicitation tools and without worrying about the identification problem. It turns out that this is enough to uniquely identify the agent's beliefs. We present different classes of proxies that one can reasonably use, and we show that it is almost always possible to find one which is easy to implement. Such flexibility makes our method, not only theoretically-sound, but also empirically appealing. We also show how our new method allows us to provide a novel well-founded definition of a utility function over states. Last but not least, it also allows us to cleanly identify motivated beliefs, freed from confounding distortions caused by the identification problem.

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