论文标题
引入节能建筑设计过程中的因果推断
Introducing causal inference in the energy-efficient building design process
论文作者
论文摘要
在设计过程中,“假设”问题是直观地产生的,并且通常是在设计过程中提出的。工程师和建筑师需要固有地执行设计决策,从一个阶段发展到另一个阶段。他们要么使用经验领域的经验,模拟或数据驱动的方法来获取结果反馈。我们以节能建筑设计的跨学科领域为例,以表明目前的决策支持方法具有四个方面的局限性或缺陷:参数独立性识别,在整合基于知识的和数据驱动的方法中的差距,较少的显式模型模型解释以及模棱两可的决策支持边界。在这项研究中,我们首先阐明了个体中动态经验的性质以及在设计中持续不断的主要知识。随后,我们将因果推论引入域。提出了一个四步过程,以通过用干预措施识别因果图,以数学上严格和计算有效的方式发现和分析参数依赖性。该因果图提供了将域知识与数据驱动方法集成的联系,从而为设计空间内的域体验提供了可解释性和可检验性。从数据中提取因果结构接近自然设计推理过程。作为例证,我们通过模拟应用了提出的估计器的属性。本文以一项可行性研究结论,证明了该框架的实现。
"What-if" questions are intuitively generated and commonly asked during the design process. Engineers and architects need to inherently conduct design decisions, progressing from one phase to another. They either use empirical domain experience, simulations, or data-driven methods to acquire consequential feedback. We take an example from an interdisciplinary domain of energy-efficient building design to argue that the current methods for decision support have limitations or deficiencies in four aspects: parametric independency identification, gaps in integrating knowledge-based and data-driven approaches, less explicit model interpretation, and ambiguous decision support boundaries. In this study, we first clarify the nature of dynamic experience in individuals and constant principal knowledge in design. Subsequently, we introduce causal inference into the domain. A four-step process is proposed to discover and analyze parametric dependencies in a mathematically rigorous and computationally efficient manner by identifying the causal diagram with interventions. The causal diagram provides a nexus for integrating domain knowledge with data-driven methods, providing interpretability and testability against the domain experience within the design space. Extracting causal structures from the data is close to the nature design reasoning process. As an illustration, we applied the properties of the proposed estimators through simulations. The paper concludes with a feasibility study demonstrating the proposed framework's realization.