论文标题
难民和内部流离失所者运动的预测建模:朝向计算框架
Predictive modeling of movements of refugees and internally displaced people: Towards a computational framework
论文作者
论文摘要
预测强制流离失所是许多人道主义援助机构的重要任务,该机构必须预期的是要提前流动,以便为弱势难民和内部流离失所者(IDP)提供庇护所,食物和医疗服务。尽管对使用机器学习更好地预测未来的到来的兴趣越来越大,但关于如何在实践中预测难民和IDP流动的标准化知识很少。研究人员和人道主义官员面临有关如何构造数据集以及如何将问题适应预测分析方法的决定,他们必须从各种建模选项中进行选择。在大多数情况下,这些决策是在不了解可以考虑的各种选项的情况下做出的,并使用主要在不同环境中应用的方法(并具有不同的目标)作为机会性参考。在这项工作中,我们试图通过提供一个系统的模型不合时宜的框架来促进对这一新兴研究领域的更全面的了解,该框架适合使用大数据源来构建预测问题。在这样做的同时,我们重点介绍了预测难民和IDP流动方面的现有工作。我们还利用自己的经验建立模型来预测索马里的强迫流离失所,以说明建模者面临的选择,并指向开放研究问题,这些问题可能用于指导未来的工作。
Predicting forced displacement is an important undertaking of many humanitarian aid agencies, which must anticipate flows in advance in order to provide vulnerable refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) with shelter, food, and medical care. While there is a growing interest in using machine learning to better anticipate future arrivals, there is little standardized knowledge on how to predict refugee and IDP flows in practice. Researchers and humanitarian officers are confronted with the need to make decisions about how to structure their datasets and how to fit their problem to predictive analytics approaches, and they must choose from a variety of modeling options. Most of the time, these decisions are made without an understanding of the full range of options that could be considered, and using methodologies that have primarily been applied in different contexts - and with different goals - as opportunistic references. In this work, we attempt to facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of this emerging field of research by providing a systematic model-agnostic framework, adapted to the use of big data sources, for structuring the prediction problem. As we do so, we highlight existing work on predicting refugee and IDP flows. We also draw on our own experience building models to predict forced displacement in Somalia, in order to illustrate the choices facing modelers and point to open research questions that may be used to guide future work.