论文标题
通过贝叶斯混合物密度网络预测概率的电量
Probabilistic electric load forecasting through Bayesian Mixture Density Networks
论文作者
论文摘要
概率负载预测(PLF)是有效地管理智能电网所需的扩展工具链中的关键组件。广泛认为神经网络可以实现改进的预测性能,从而支持目标和条件变量设置之间的复杂关系的高度灵活映射。但是,从这种黑盒模型中获得全面的预测不确定性仍然是一个具有挑战性且未解决的问题。在这项工作中,我们提出了一种新型的PLF方法,该方法构成了贝叶斯混合物密度网络。在模型预测中涵盖了核心和认知不确定性来源,根据输入特征,在端到端的训练框架内推断了一般条件密度。为了获得后验分布的可靠和计算可扩展的估计器,平均场变异推理和深层集成均已集成。已经对家庭短期负载预测任务进行了实验,显示了所提出的方法在不同操作条件下实现稳健性能的能力。
Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) is a key component in the extended tool-chain required for efficient management of smart energy grids. Neural networks are widely considered to achieve improved prediction performances, supporting highly flexible mappings of complex relationships between the target and the conditioning variables set. However, obtaining comprehensive predictive uncertainties from such black-box models is still a challenging and unsolved problem. In this work, we propose a novel PLF approach, framed on Bayesian Mixture Density Networks. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty sources are encompassed within the model predictions, inferring general conditional densities, depending on the input features, within an end-to-end training framework. To achieve reliable and computationally scalable estimators of the posterior distributions, both Mean Field variational inference and deep ensembles are integrated. Experiments have been performed on household short-term load forecasting tasks, showing the capability of the proposed method to achieve robust performances in different operating conditions.