论文标题
心理学和社会科学中的错误指定和不可靠的解释
Misspecification and Unreliable Interpretations in Psychology and Social Science
论文作者
论文摘要
可复制性危机引起人们对心理学和社会科学研究实践中众多弱点的关注。在这项工作中，我们专注于仅复制无法解决的三个问题，值得关注：功能错误指定，结构性错误指定和对结果的不可靠解释。我们通过模拟证明了许多可能的后果，并为研究人员提供了改善研究实践的建议。心理学家和社会科学家应参与这些分析和统计改进领域，因为它们有可能严重阻碍科学进步。每个研究问题和假设都可能提出其独特的挑战，并且仅通过对预测性和因果建模的各种统计方法的认识和理解，研究人员才能使用适当解决这些方法的工具。
The replicability crisis has drawn attention to numerous weaknesses in psychology and social science research practice. In this work we focus on three issues that cannot be addressed with replication alone, and which deserve more attention: Functional misspecification, structural misspecification, and unreliable interpretation of results. We demonstrate a number of possible consequences via simulation, and provide recommendations for researchers to improve their research practice. Psychologists and social scientists should engage with these areas of analytical and statistical improvement, as they have the potential to seriously hinder scientific progress. Every research question and hypothesis may present its own unique challenges, and it is only through an awareness and understanding of varied statistical methods for predictive and causal modeling, that researchers will have the tools with which to appropriately address them.
