论文标题
对法国共同19的发生率和死亡率的现实估计
Realistic estimate of the Covid-19 incidence and mortality rate in France
论文作者
论文摘要
自2020年5月以来，实施了SARS-COV2的大规模病毒学测试。我们假设无症状的人不接触案件的积极性（ANBC）代表了整个法国人口的积极性，这允许估计实际发病率。我们使用Santé公共法国报告估计，8月初的发病率约为0.8％，上升到9月初的总人口的2.4％。这对应于约160万人同时感染的人和230.000种新感染。这些评估允许推断出重症监护单位（ICU）的入院率和感染率（IFR）自3月以来下降了一个数量级，目前分别为0.036％和0.027％。根据法国，法国，伊利特·德·迪姆（Puy de Dome），布什斯·杜·罗纳（Bouches du Rhone）和大EST进行了基于可忽略的再感染概率的假设的爆发演变的基本模拟。这些模拟随着时间的流逝，繁殖速率（R）持续时间为1.3至1.45（大EST中的1.15）。他们使用在第一波期间发生的感染数量的估计。这些模拟还使用了估计的发病率，该发生率通过减少几周后的易感人群诱导爆发的指数级增长的饱和。预计法国第39周的发病率峰值将达到3.5％。在第二波中，计算出的ICU入院和死亡总数分别为9000和7000，r = 1.3。在r = 1.3的r = 1.3时，对两个波的累积发生率计算到接近60％，r = 1.4。这表明，如果存在个人的免疫力，到2020年10月底，在法国可能会实现牛群的免疫力。我们得出结论，Covid-19比以前认为的传播要多得多，但是自从第一波结束以来，其严重性变得有限。
Large scale virological testing of SARS-Cov2 is implemented since May 2020 in France. We assume that the positivity of asymptomatic people not being contact cases (ANBC) is representative of the positivity of the whole French population, which allows estimating the real incidence. We estimate, using Santé Public France reports, that the incidence at the beginning of August was about 0.8% and rose to about 2.4% of the total population at the beginning of September. This corresponds to about 1.6 million people simultaneously infected and 230.000 new infections each day. These evaluations allow to deduce that intensive care units (ICU) admission rate and infection fatality rate (IFR) dropped by one order of magnitude since March, and are currently 0.036% and 0.027% respectively. Basic simulations of the outbreak evolution based on the hypothesis of negligible reinfection probability are performed for France, Ile de France, Puy de Dome, Bouches du Rhone and Grand Est. These simulations are using a reproduction rate (R) constant over time ranging from 1.3 to 1.45 (1.15 in Grand Est). They use an estimation of the number of infection which occurred during the first wave. These simulations also use the estimated incidence, which by reducing the susceptible population weeks after weeks induces a saturation of the otherwise exponential growth of the outbreak. An incidence peak of 3.5 % is expected at week 39 for France. The calculated total number of ICU admission and deaths during the second wave are 9000 and 7000 respectively for R=1.3. The cumulative incidence over the two waves is computed close to 60% for R=1.3 and 70% for R=1.4. This suggests that if individual immunity exists, herd immunity is likely to be achieved in France by the end of October 2020. We conclude that Covid-19 is much more spread than previously thought, but its severity became limited since the end of the first wave.
