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Accurate prediction of the onset and strength of breaking surface gravity waves is a long-standing problem of significant theoretical and applied interest. Recently, Barthélémy et al (https://doi.org/10.1017/jfm.2018.93) examined the energetics of focusing wave groups in deep and intermediate depth water and found that breaking and non-breaking regimes were clearly separated by the normalised energy flux, $B$, near the crest tip. Furthermore, the transition of $B$ through a generic breaking threshold value $B_\mathrm{th} \approx 0.85$ was found to precede visible breaking onset by up to one fifth of a wave period. This remarkable generic threshold for breaking inception has since been validated numerically for 2D and 3D domains and for shallow and shoaling water waves; however, there is presently no theoretical explanation for its efficacy as a predictor for breaking. This study investigates the correspondence between the parameter $B$ and the crest energy growth rate following the evolving crest for breaking and non-breaking waves in a numerical wave tank using a range of wave packet configurations. Our results indicate that the time rate of change of the $B$ is strongly correlated with the energy density convergence rate at the evolving wave crest. These findings further advance present understanding of the elusive process of wave breaking.