论文标题

临界SIR动力学的流行高原具有非平凡的初始条件

Epidemic plateau in critical SIR dynamics with non-trivial initial conditions

论文作者

Radicchi, Filippo, Bianconi, Ginestra

论文摘要

某些国家采取的遏制措施抑制了19009的传播,导致流行病的放缓,其特征是每日感染的时间序列在长时间的时间内每日感染高原。我们证明,这种动态模式与关键的易感感染得分(SIR)动力学兼容。在关键SIR模型的传统分析中,关键动力学制度是从单个感染节点开始的。然而,在持续的流行病中采用遏制措施的应用有效,使该系统进入其关键状态,其中许多受感染的个体可能大。我们描述了这种非平凡的起始条件如何影响SIR模型的关键行为。我们对模型进行了理论和大规模的数值研究。我们表明,预期的暴发规模是受感染个体的初始数量的增加功能,而爆发的预期持续时间是受感染个体初始数量的非单调功能。同样,我们精确地表征了与临界SIR动力学的爆发大小和持续时间相关的波动的大小,并具有非平凡的初始条件。波动远远超过平均值要大得多,因此表明平台时间序列的预测可能特别具有挑战性。

Containment measures implemented by some countries to suppress the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in a slowdown of the epidemic characterized by time series of daily infections plateauing over extended periods of time. We prove that such a dynamical pattern is compatible with critical Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) dynamics. In traditional analyses of the critical SIR model, the critical dynamical regime is started from a single infected node. The application of containment measures to an ongoing epidemic, however, has the effect to make the system enter in its critical regime with a number of infected individuals potentially large. We describe how such non-trivial starting conditions affect the critical behavior of the SIR model. We perform a theoretical and large-scale numerical investigation of the model. We show that the expected outbreak size is an increasing function of the initial number of infected individuals, while the expected duration of the outbreak is a non-monotonic function of the initial number of infected individuals. Also, we precisely characterize the magnitude of the fluctuations associated with the size and duration of the outbreak in critical SIR dynamics with non-trivial initial conditions. Far from heard immunity, fluctuations are much larger than average values, thus indicating that predictions of plateauing time series may be particularly challenging.

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