论文标题
凯恩斯主义的抑郁模型。供应冲击和COVID-19危机
Keynesian models of depression. Supply shocks and the COVID-19 Crisis
论文作者
论文摘要
这项工作的目的是双重的：在这个凯恩斯主义的概念环境中，扩大托宾提出的抑郁模型并分析供应冲击，例如COVID-19大流行。扩展使我们能够提出所有内源性宏观经济变量的演变。由于其理论和实际含义，获得的结果是相关的。通过对总需求的影响，数量或凯恩斯对冲击的调整会产生抑郁症。这种抑郁症在中/长期内恶化。它伴随着通货膨胀，通货膨胀期望和实际利率的增加。还建议制定刺激税收政策，以及降低实际利率的积极货币政策。另一方面，定价或马歇尔调整预见到短期内会更加严重，迅速的抑郁症。通货膨胀和通货膨胀期望以及实际利率的提高将有所下降。税收或货币刺激措施只会影响通货膨胀。该结果使得澄清和评估所得抑郁症以及提出政策成为可能。最后，它提供了矛盾的预测，允许两个模型之一被伪造。
The objective of this work is twofold: to expand the depression models proposed by Tobin and analyse a supply shock, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, in this Keynesian conceptual environment. The expansion allows us to propose the evolution of all endogenous macroeconomic variables. The result obtained is relevant due to its theoretical and practical implications. A quantity or Keynesian adjustment to the shock produces a depression through the effect on aggregate demand. This depression worsens in the medium/long-term. It is accompanied by increases in inflation, inflation expectations and the real interest rate. A stimulus tax policy is also recommended, as well as an active monetary policy to reduce real interest rates. On the other hand, the pricing or Marshallian adjustment foresees a more severe and rapid depression in the short-term. There would be a reduction in inflation and inflation expectations, and an increase in the real interest rates. The tax or monetary stimulus measures would only impact inflation. This result makes it possible to clarify and assess the resulting depression, as well as propose policies. Finally, it offers conflicting predictions that allow one of the two models to be falsified.
