论文标题
1980年至2016年之间，尼泊尔七个省份出生时性别比例的水平和趋势，概率预测到2050年：贝叶斯建模方法
Levels and trends in the sex ratio at birth in seven provinces of Nepal between 1980 and 2016 with probabilistic projections to 2050: a Bayesian modeling approach
论文作者
论文摘要
据报道，尼泊尔出生时的性别比（SRB;男性与女性出生的比率）据报道没有在国家一级不平衡。但是，国家SRB可以掩盖该国内部的差异。鉴于尼泊尔的人口统计学和文化异质性，对于尼泊尔SRB的次数至关重要。关于尼泊尔统一SRB的先前研究主要基于报告观察到的调查和人口普查值，并且没有研究提供概率预测。我们的目标是使用贝叶斯建模方法估算1980年至2050年尼泊尔七个省的SRB。我们在尼泊尔省SRB上编写了广泛的数据库，其中包括2001、2006、2011和2016年尼泊尔人口统计和健康调查以及2011年的人口普查。我们采用了贝叶斯分层时间序列模型来估计和投射省级SRB，重点是建模潜在的SRB失衡。 2016年，最高的SRB在5省5分为1.102，可靠间隔为95％（1.044，1.127），最低的SRB在省2位于1.053（1.035，1.109）。所有省份的SRB不平衡概率通常较低，从省5省2到81％的16％不等。估计SRB不平衡是在2001年最早开始于2001年5月5日的最早开始，可信间隔95％（1992，2022，2022），在2017年（1998年，2040年的最新基地）中，范围为2级。 2030年代中期。我们的发现表明，尼泊尔省的大多数省在1980 - 2016年期间的SRB失衡风险较低。但是，我们确定了一些具有SRB通货膨胀率较高的省份。预计的SRB是潜在的未来产前性别歧视的重要例证，并表明有必要监视SRB失衡可能性更高的省份的SRB。
The sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female births) in Nepal has been reported without imbalance on the national level. However, the national SRB could mask the disparity within the country. Given the demographic and cultural heterogeneities in Nepal, it is crucial to model Nepal SRB on the subnational level. Prior studies on subnational SRB in Nepal are mostly based on reporting observed values from surveys and census, and no study has provided probabilistic projections. We aim to estimate and project SRB for the seven provinces of Nepal from 1980 to 2050 using a Bayesian modeling approach. We compiled an extensive database on provincial SRB of Nepal, consisting 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys and 2011 Census. We adopted a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to estimate and project the provincial SRB, with a focus on modelling the potential SRB imbalance. In 2016, the highest SRB is estimated in Province 5 at 1.102 with a 95% credible interval (1.044, 1.127) and the lowest SRB is in Province 2 at 1.053 (1.035, 1.109). The SRB imbalance probabilities in all provinces are generally low and vary from 16% in Province 2 to 81% in Province 5. SRB imbalances are estimated to have begun at the earliest in 2001 in Province 5 with a 95% credible interval (1992, 2022) and the latest in 2017 (1998, 2040) in Province 2. We project SRB in all provinces to begin converging back to the national baseline in the mid-2030s. Our findings imply that the majority of provinces in Nepal have low risks of SRB imbalance for the period 1980-2016. However, we identify a few provinces with higher probabilities of having SRB inflation. The projected SRB is an important illustration of potential future prenatal sex discrimination and shows the need to monitor SRB in provinces with higher possibilities of SRB imbalance.
