论文标题
Covid-19的隐藏侧在意大利蔓延
The hidden side of COVID-19 spread in Italy
论文作者
论文摘要
背景。该论文涉及SARS-COV2（COVID-19）大流行，该大流行从2020年2月底开始，开始沿着意大利半岛沿着意大利半岛，首先攻击北部地区的小社区，然后延伸到意大利中心和南部，包括两个主要岛屿。 客观的。建立一个预测模型，该模型设法提醒决策机构，尤其是医疗保健系统，以阻碍任何其他流行病爆发或随后的大流行波的到来。 方法。给出了一个新的数学模型来描述大流行。该模型包括一类未诊断的感染者，并具有多区域扩展，以应对流行病的时间和空间异质性。 结果。我们为总体和活动案例的预测获得了强大而可靠的工具，该工具也可用于模拟不同的情况。 结论。我们能够解决许多问题，例如评估意大利的采用，从2020年3月11日开始，以及如何采用快速筛选测试活动来遏制该流行病。
Background. The paper concerns the SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) pandemic that, starting from the end of February 2020, began spreading along the Italian peninsula, by first attacking small communities in north regions, and then extending to the center and south of Italy, including the two main islands. Objective. The creation of a forecast model that manages to alert the decision-making bodies and, in particular, the healthcare system, to hinder the emergence of any other pandemic outbreaks, or the arrival of subsequent pandemic waves. Methods. A new mathematical model to describe the pandemic is given. The model includes the class of undiagnosed infected people, and has a multi-region extension, to cope with the in-time and in-space heterogeneity of the epidemic. Results. We obtain a robust and reliable tool for the forecast of the total and active cases, which can be also used to simulate different scenarios. Conclusions. We are able to address a number of issues, such as assessing the adoption of the lockdown in Italy, started from 11 March 2020, and how to employ a rapid screening test campaign for containing the epidemic.
