论文标题
GW151216的天体物理赔率
The astrophysical odds of GW151216
论文作者
论文摘要
重力波候选GW151216是提出的二进制黑洞事件，该事件是第一次观察到高级LIGO探测器的运行。 Ligo-virgo协作没有将其确定为真正的信号，因此对其真实性存在分歧，该性能通过$ p_ \ text {astro} $量化，这是事件在原点上是天体物理的概率。从不同组中的$ p_ \ text {asto} $的$ p_ \ text {asto} $的先前估计范围为0.18至0.71，因此不清楚该事件是否应包括在人口分析中，通常需要$ p_ \ text {astro}> 0.5 $。 GW151216是否是天体物理信号，对恒星质量黑洞的种群特性以及大恒星的演变都具有影响。使用天体物理赔率，一种使用检测器之间的信号相干性和非没应物理检测器噪声的参数化模型的贝叶斯方法，我们发现$ p_ \ text {astro} = 0.03 $，这表明GW151216不太可能是真正的信号。我们还分析了GW150914（第一个重力波检测）和GW151012（最初被认为是模棱两可的检测），并分别找到$ p_ \ text {astro} $值为1和0.997。我们认为，此处呈现的天体物理赔率会改善传统方法，以区分信号和噪声。
The gravitational-wave candidate GW151216 is a proposed binary black hole event from the first observing run of the Advanced LIGO detectors. Not identified as a bona fide signal by the LIGO--Virgo collaboration, there is disagreement as to its authenticity, which is quantified by $p_\text{astro}$, the probability that the event is astrophysical in origin. Previous estimates of $p_\text{astro}$ from different groups range from 0.18 to 0.71, making it unclear whether this event should be included in population analyses, which typically require $p_\text{astro}>0.5$. Whether GW151216 is an astrophysical signal or not has implications for the population properties of stellar-mass black holes and hence the evolution of massive stars. Using the astrophysical odds, a Bayesian method which uses the signal coherence between detectors and a parameterised model of non-astrophysical detector noise, we find that $p_\text{astro}=0.03$, suggesting that GW151216 is unlikely to be a genuine signal. We also analyse GW150914 (the first gravitational-wave detection) and GW151012 (initially considered to be an ambiguous detection) and find $p_\text{astro}$ values of 1 and 0.997 respectively. We argue that the astrophysical odds presented here improve upon traditional methods for distinguishing signals from noise.
