论文标题

基于遗传算法的优化,基于长期电力市场代理的模型验证

Long-term electricity market agent based model validation using genetic algorithm based optimization

论文作者

Kell, Alexander J. M., Forshaw, Matthew, McGough, A. Stephen

论文摘要

政府,行业和机构经常使用电力市场建模来探索各种时间范围内场景的发展。例如,可再生能源成本的降低将如何影响天然气发电厂的投资,或者是碳税或补贴的最佳策略?基于成本优化的解决方案是理解不同长期能源情景的主要方法。但是,这些类型的模型有一定的局限性,例如需要以规范方式解释,并且假设电力市场在整个过程中保持平衡。通过这项工作,我们表明基于代理的模型是模拟分散电力市场的可行技术。本文的目的是验证一个基于代理的建模框架,以提高对政策和决策能力的信心。我们的框架可以使用不完美的信息对异质代理建模。该模型使用基于规则的方法来近似现实世界的基础动态,分散的电力市场。我们将英国用作案例研究,但是,我们的框架可以对其他国家进行普遍。我们通过使用$ k $ -MEANS聚类方法选择代表性的电力需求和天气来增加模型的时间粒度。我们表明,我们的框架可以在2013年至2018年之间在英国观察到的从煤炭到天然气的过渡建模。我们还能够将未来的情况模拟到2035年,这与英国政府,商业和工业战略部(BEIS)的预测相似。在这个时期,我们显示出核能的更现实增加。这是由于以下事实:借助当前的核技术,电力几乎是瞬时产生的,并且短期边缘成本\ cite {dmotopty2016}。

Electricity market modelling is often used by governments, industry and agencies to explore the development of scenarios over differing timeframes. For example, how would the reduction in cost of renewable energy impact investments in gas power plants or what would be an optimum strategy for carbon tax or subsidies? Cost optimization based solutions are the dominant approach for understanding different long-term energy scenarios. However, these types of models have certain limitations such as the need to be interpreted in a normative manner, and the assumption that the electricity market remains in equilibrium throughout. Through this work, we show that agent-based models are a viable technique to simulate decentralised electricity markets. The aim of this paper is to validate an agent-based modelling framework to increase confidence in its ability to be used in policy and decision making. Our framework can model heterogeneous agents with imperfect information. The model uses a rules-based approach to approximate the underlying dynamics of a real world, decentralised electricity market. We use the UK as a case study, however, our framework is generalisable to other countries. We increase the temporal granularity of the model by selecting representative days of electricity demand and weather using a $k$-means clustering approach. We show that our framework can model the transition from coal to gas observed in the UK between 2013 and 2018. We are also able to simulate a future scenario to 2035 which is similar to the UK Government, Department for Business and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) projections. We show a more realistic increase in nuclear power over this time period. This is due to the fact that with current nuclear technology, electricity is generated almost instantaneously and has a low short-run marginal cost \cite{Department2016}.

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