论文标题
考虑到外部感染注入和政府隔离政策的最小流行模型：对Covid-19的应用大流行
Minimal epidemic model considering external infected injection and governmental quarantine policies: Application to COVID-19 pandemic
论文作者
论文摘要
由于现代运输网络（飞机，邮轮等），在特定国家或城市的流行病可能是由外部感染者的到来引发的。通常采取政府后隔离政策，以控制流行病的增长。我们制定了一个最小的流行进化模型，该模型考虑了这些组成部分。隔离政策的先前和后后演变是通过考虑每个阶段中不同复杂性参数来建模的。实施了该模型在不同国家 /地区的COVID-19数据中的应用。根据模型，报告的数据以及采用隔离政策的人群的比例，对受感染的峰值时间出现和流行饱和度值以及可能的后场景进行了估计。
Due to modern transportation networks (airplanes, cruise ships, etc.) an epidemic in a given country or city may be triggered by the arrival of external infected agents. Posterior government quarantine policies are usually taken in order to control the epidemic growth. We formulate a minimal epidemic evolution model that takes into account these components. The previous and posterior evolutions to the quarantine policy are modeled in a separate way by considering different complexities parameters in each stage. Application of this model to COVID-19 data in different countries is implemented. Estimations of the infected peak time-occurrence and epidemic saturation values as well as possible post-quarantine scenarios are analyzed over the basis of the model, reported data, and the fraction of the population that adopts the quarantine policy.
