论文标题
实用的希尔伯特空间近似贝叶斯高斯流程,用于概率编程
Practical Hilbert space approximate Bayesian Gaussian processes for probabilistic programming
论文作者
论文摘要
高斯过程是用于随机函数的强大非参数概率模型。但是,直接实施需要一个复杂性,当观测值较大时,在计算上棘手是棘手的,尤其是当用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛等完全贝叶斯方法估算时。在本文中,我们将重点放在低级近似贝叶斯高斯流程上,基于通过拉普拉斯本本特征功能的基础函数近似来实现固定协方差函数。本文的主要贡献是对绩效的详细分析,以及有关如何选择基本函数数量和边界因素的实用建议。直观的可视化和建议,使用户更容易提高近似准确性和计算性能。我们还提出了诊断方法,以检查鉴于数据的基础功能数量和边界因素是否足够。该方法很简单,由于其线性结构而表现出有吸引力的计算复杂性,并且在概率编程框架中很容易实现。该方法在概率编程语言Stan中的性能和适用性的几个说明性示例与基础Stan模型代码一起介绍。
Gaussian processes are powerful non-parametric probabilistic models for stochastic functions. However, the direct implementation entails a complexity that is computationally intractable when the number of observations is large, especially when estimated with fully Bayesian methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. In this paper, we focus on a low-rank approximate Bayesian Gaussian processes, based on a basis function approximation via Laplace eigenfunctions for stationary covariance functions. The main contribution of this paper is a detailed analysis of the performance, and practical recommendations for how to select the number of basis functions and the boundary factor. Intuitive visualizations and recommendations, make it easier for users to improve approximation accuracy and computational performance. We also propose diagnostics for checking that the number of basis functions and the boundary factor are adequate given the data. The approach is simple and exhibits an attractive computational complexity due to its linear structure, and it is easy to implement in probabilistic programming frameworks. Several illustrative examples of the performance and applicability of the method in the probabilistic programming language Stan are presented together with the underlying Stan model code.