论文标题
减轻减轻的机会窗口，以防止Covid-19芝加哥ICU容量溢出
Window of Opportunity for Mitigation to Prevent Overflow of ICU capacity in Chicago by COVID-19
论文作者
论文摘要
我们使用针对SARS-COV-2病毒校准的最先进的计算机模拟来估计芝加哥ICU床的需求增长。我们解决的问题是： （1）将超过芝加哥的ICU容量，如果是的，那么多少？ （2）强大的缓解策略（例如锁定或庇护所秩序）是否可以防止容量的溢出？ （3）什么时候应该实施此类策略？ 我们的答案如下： （1）ICU容量可以超过大量，可能是十倍。 （2）强烈的缓解可能避免这种紧急情况，但即使实施太晚也无法正常工作。 （3）如果强烈缓解措施在4月1日之前，则可以控制Covid-19的增长，并且ICU容量可能足够。实施强大的缓解措施越早，成功的可能性就越大。 2020年4月1日左右，任何强大的缓解措施都不会避免紧急情况。在意大利，锁定发生得为时已晚，死亡人数仍在每2.3天增加一倍。由于计算机模拟中固有的不确定性，因此很难确保此机会窗口的确切日期。但是，人们对它存在的主要结论具有很高的信心，并且很快就会被关闭。 我们的结论是，由于完全意识到社会权衡，因此有一个迅速结束的机会窗口，以避免在芝加哥发生最坏的情况，但仅在下周在下周实施了强烈的缓解/锁定。如果错过了此窗口，那么流行病将变得更糟，毕竟将需要强大的缓解/锁定，但这还为时已晚。
We estimate the growth in demand for ICU beds in Chicago during the emerging COVID-19 epidemic, using state-of-the-art computer simulations calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions we address are these: (1) Will the ICU capacity in Chicago be exceeded, and if so by how much? (2) Can strong mitigation strategies, such as lockdown or shelter in place order, prevent the overflow of capacity? (3) When should such strategies be implemented? Our answers are as follows: (1) The ICU capacity may be exceeded by a large amount, probably by a factor of ten. (2) Strong mitigation can avert this emergency situation potentially, but even that will not work if implemented too late. (3) If the strong mitigation precedes April 1st, then the growth of COVID-19 can be controlled and the ICU capacity could be adequate. The earlier the strong mitigation is implemented, the greater the probability that it will be successful. After around April 1 2020, any strong mitigation will not avert the emergency situation. In Italy, the lockdown occurred too late and the number of deaths is still doubling every 2.3 days. It is difficult to be sure about the precise dates for this window of opportunity, due to the inherent uncertainties in computer simulation. But there is high confidence in the main conclusion that it exists and will soon be closed. Our conclusion is that, being fully cognizant of the societal trade-offs, there is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to avert a worst-case scenario in Chicago, but only with strong mitigation/lockdown implemented in the next week at the latest. If this window is missed, the epidemic will get worse and then strong mitigation/lockdown will be required after all, but it will be too late.
