论文标题
冠状病毒病（COVID-19）的日期预测：分析，建模和建议
Day Level Forecasting for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Spread: Analysis, Modeling and Recommendations
论文作者
论文摘要
在2020年3月中旬，诸如Covid-19的冠状病毒被宣布为国际流行病。在118多个国家 /地区，已记录了超过125000例确认的案件和4,607例死亡案件。不幸的是，如果冠状病毒疫苗有效，则预计至少需要18个月。此外，COVID -19流行病可以突变为更具侵略性的形式。有关COVID -19扩散的日级信息对于衡量全球这种新病毒的行为至关重要。因此，这项研究介绍了使用时间序列模型和数学公式的COVID-19受影响病例的日期水平预测模型的比较。预测模型和数据强烈表明，冠状病毒病例的数量在不要求隔离的国家 /地区呈指数增长，对旅行和公共聚会的限制以及学校，大学和工作场所的关闭（社会疏远）。
In mid of March 2020, Coronaviruses such as COVID-19 is declared as an international epidemic. More than 125000 confirmed cases and 4,607 death cases have been recorded around more than 118 countries. Unfortunately, a coronavirus vaccine is expected to take at least 18 months if it works at all. Moreover, COVID -19 epidemics can mutate into a more aggressive form. Day level information about the COVID -19 spread is crucial to measure the behavior of this new virus globally. Therefore, this study presents a comparison of day level forecasting models on COVID-19 affected cases using time series models and mathematical formulation. The forecasting models and data strongly suggest that the number of coronavirus cases grows exponentially in countries that do not mandate quarantines, restrictions on travel and public gatherings, and closing of schools, universities, and workplaces (Social Distancing).
