论文标题

双重机器学习的因果中介分析

Causal mediation analysis with double machine learning

论文作者

Farbmacher, Helmut, Huber, Martin, Lafférs, Lukáš, Langen, Henrika, Spindler, Martin

论文摘要

本文将因果中介分析与双机器学习结合在一起,以在高维设置中以数据驱动的方式控制观察到的混杂因素。我们考虑通过中间变量(或介体)在治疗与结果之间的因果路径以及未导演的直接效应之间进行的二元处理的平均间接效应。估计基于有效的分数功能,该功能具有多重鲁棒性属性W.R.T.结果,调解人和治疗模型的拼写错误。此属性是通过双机器学习选择这些模型的关键,该模型与数据分割结合在一起,以防止在感兴趣的影响估计中过度拟合。我们证明,在特定的规律条件下,直接和间接效应估计量在渐进条件下是渐近正常的,并且根-N是一致的,并在将Lasso视为机器学习者时,在模拟研究中研究了建议方法的有限样本特性。我们还向美国全国对青年的纵向调查提供了经验应用,评估了通过作为调解人的常规检查以及直接效应,健康保险覆盖对一般健康运营的间接影响。我们发现健康保险覆盖范围对一般健康的短期影响,但是不是通过常规检查介导的。

This paper combines causal mediation analysis with double machine learning to control for observed confounders in a data-driven way under a selection-on-observables assumption in a high-dimensional setting. We consider the average indirect effect of a binary treatment operating through an intermediate variable (or mediator) on the causal path between the treatment and the outcome, as well as the unmediated direct effect. Estimation is based on efficient score functions, which possess a multiple robustness property w.r.t. misspecifications of the outcome, mediator, and treatment models. This property is key for selecting these models by double machine learning, which is combined with data splitting to prevent overfitting in the estimation of the effects of interest. We demonstrate that the direct and indirect effect estimators are asymptotically normal and root-n consistent under specific regularity conditions and investigate the finite sample properties of the suggested methods in a simulation study when considering lasso as machine learner. We also provide an empirical application to the U.S. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, assessing the indirect effect of health insurance coverage on general health operating via routine checkups as mediator, as well as the direct effect. We find a moderate short term effect of health insurance coverage on general health which is, however, not mediated by routine checkups.

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