论文标题
基于人群流量的模拟，“钻石公主”中的covid-19感染了多少。
How many infections of COVID-19 there will be in the "Diamond Princess"-Predicted by a virus transmission model based on the simulation of crowd flow
论文作者
论文摘要
目的：在游轮中模拟19COVID-19的传输过程，然后判断“钻石公主”中3711人中会有多少感染，并分析可能阻止质量传播的措施。 方法：根据人群流量模型，建立了行人之间的病毒传播规则，以模拟行人日常活动在游轮上的日常活动中密切接触引起的病毒的传播。 测量和主要结果：设计了三种类型的模拟方案，基本场景集中在病毒载体引起的病毒传播过程以及对病毒的个人保护措施的影响。在自我保护的情况下，考虑了原始病毒载体下车和越来越多的人加强自我保护的条件，这将与“钻石公主”巡游的实际情况相对一致。设置控制场景以模拟采取建议或强制性措施对病毒传播的影响 结论：在“钻石公主”航行期间，有850〜1009人（概率很大）被Covid-19感染。如果在COVID-19爆发的警报阶段可以立即采取建议或强制性措施，将有效控制人群感染百分比。
Objectives: Simulate the transmission process of COVID-19 in a cruise ship, and then to judge how many infections there will be in the 3711 people in the "Diamond Princess" and analyze measures that could have prevented mass transmission. Methods: Based on the crowd flow model, the virus transmission rule between pedestrians is established, to simulate the spread of the virus caused by the close contact during pedestrians' daily activities on the cruise ship. Measurements and main results: Three types of simulation scenarios are designed, the Basic scenario focus on the process of virus transmission caused by a virus carrier and the effect of the personal protective measure against the virus. The condition that the original virus carriers had disembarked halfway and more and more people strengthen self-protection are considered in the Self-protection scenario, which would comparatively accord with the actual situation of "Diamond princess" cruise. Control scenario are set to simulate the effect of taking recommended or mandatory measures on virus transmission Conclusions: There are 850~1009 persons (with large probability) who have been infected with COVID-19 during the voyage of "Diamond Princess". The crowd infection percentage would be controlled effectively if the recommended or mandatory measures can be taken immediately during the alert phase of COVID-19 outbreaks.
