论文标题
使用添加剂危险模型模拟来自边缘结构模型的纵向数据
Simulating longitudinal data from marginal structural models using the additive hazard model
论文作者
论文摘要
关于治疗和协变量的观察纵向数据越来越多地用于研究治疗效果,但通常会受到时间依赖性的混杂。边缘结构模型(MSMS),使用治疗加权或G形成型的逆概率估算,很受欢迎来处理此问题。随着高级因果推理方法的发展,能够在不同情况下评估其绩效以指导其应用非常重要。仿真研究是为此的关键工具,但是它们用于评估因果推断方法的使用受到限制。本文着重于使用模拟用于评估MSM的评估,其中有时间的结果。在模拟中,重要的是能够以某种方式生成数据,使得已知要拟合到这些数据的任何模型的正确形式。但是,这在纵向环境中并不直接,因为它自然要以顺序条件方式生成数据,而MSMS涉及拟合边际而不是条件危险模型。我们提供了一般结果,使能够根据条件数据生成过程得出正确指定的MSM的形式,并显示有条件危害模型是AALEN添加剂危害或COX模型时如何应用结果。使用条件添加危险模型是有利的,因为它们暗示可以使用标准软件拟合的加性MSM。我们描述并说明了模拟算法。我们的结果将帮助研究人员通过模拟有效评估因果推断方法。
Observational longitudinal data on treatments and covariates are increasingly used to investigate treatment effects, but are often subject to time-dependent confounding. Marginal structural models (MSMs), estimated using inverse probability of treatment weighting or the g-formula, are popular for handling this problem. With increasing development of advanced causal inference methods, it is important to be able to assess their performance in different scenarios to guide their application. Simulation studies are a key tool for this, but their use to evaluate causal inference methods has been limited. This paper focuses on the use of simulations for evaluations involving MSMs in studies with a time-to-event outcome. In a simulation, it is important to be able to generate the data in such a way that the correct form of any models to be fitted to those data is known. However, this is not straightforward in the longitudinal setting because it is natural for data to be generated in a sequential conditional manner, whereas MSMs involve fitting marginal rather than conditional hazard models. We provide general results that enable the form of the correctly-specified MSM to be derived based on a conditional data generating procedure, and show how the results can be applied when the conditional hazard model is an Aalen additive hazard or Cox model. Using conditional additive hazard models is advantageous because they imply additive MSMs that can be fitted using standard software. We describe and illustrate a simulation algorithm. Our results will help researchers to effectively evaluate causal inference methods via simulation.